Longtail
Launch app
Quoting 103 markets right now

Every market deserves a market maker.

Creating a prediction market is free. Making it tradeable isn't. Longtail is an AI-agent liquidity network that prices, quotes and risk-manages the long tail nobody else makes.

Launch app See the evidence
24h volume by market rank · 186,561 marketsPolymarket
top 0.1% · 61% of volumethe long tail · quoted by Longtail →
103
markets quoted
$199
rewards/day
1.3245
vault share
Runs onPolymarketHyperliquid HIP-4HyperEVMKalshi dataClaude
The problem

Listing is cheap. Liquidity isn't.

A census of every open market shows the same power law on every venue: a handful of headline markets take all the volume, and everything else waits for a counterparty that never comes.

186,561
open Polymarket markets with an order book
61%
of 24h volume in the top 186 markets
$4
median depth within 2¢ on the long tail
$29.2k
per day in maker rewards already on offer there
Share of 24h volume by market rank
How it works

Knowing when not to quote is the product.

Naive market making on thin markets loses to adverse selection. Longtail's engine decides, market by market and every five minutes, whether a quote is safe to post.

  1. 01
    Classify

    Separates slow-information markets from live ones where a resting quote gets picked off.

  2. 02
    Price

    Blends book, trades and history, then corrects the long-shot bias with a fitted calibration curve.

  3. 03
    Triage

    A Claude agent reads each market's rules and refuses insider-prone or ambiguous ones.

  4. 04
    Risk

    Toxicity markouts, drift guard, worst-case sizing, reduce-only before resolution.

  5. 05
    Quote

    Post-only, two-sided quotes on Polymarket and Hyperliquid HIP-4, every five minutes.

Evidence

Tested on markets that already resolved.

Walk-forward replay: calibration fitted on older markets, every strategy scored on newer ones, fills only on real taker prints, settled at the real outcome.

PnL after settlement, 482 unseen markets
-38.8% → +1.9%
Long-shot bias, corrected
Brier 0.0706 → 0.0670
Claude, out of sample

136 markets that resolved after its training cutoff. Blended with the calibrated price it beats the market.

Brier 0.0598 → 0.0565
−$237

lost by the 31 markets the agent refused to quote

+$254

earned by the 105 markets it cleared

On-chain

Pooled capital with a leash.

LPs fund an ERC-4626 vault. The keeper deploys to venue accounts and reports NAV on-chain, each report pinned to the hash of the published positions and bounded so a faulty keeper can only move NAV slowly.

Vault total assets
$2,001
HyperEVM testnet · chain 998
Live testnet quotes
Hyperliquid HIP-4
bid YES + bid NO: no inventory, no liquidation
Guardrails
±5% · 10 min · 2 days
max NAV move · report interval · staleness freeze

Watch the engine quote the long tail, live.

Every market, every decision and every on-chain report, updated every five minutes.

Launch app Read the code